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In a livestream on October 22, 2025, crypto commentator Zach Rector argued that an XRP supply squeeze in 2025 is effectively baked in, contending that pending spot exchange-traded funds and a wave of digital asset treasury vehicles will lock up meaningful amounts of circulating supply.
This is no longer speculation, Rector said at the top of the show. When these ETFs do go live, we are going to see inflows With conservative assumptions on the inflows and simple math on the multiplier we can confirm that XRP is going to a much higher price and that a supply shock will ensue this year unless the government shutdown extends until 2026.
Rector anchored his thesis to what he described as empirics from last years trading. Citing his own notes, he said that in November 2024 net inflows to XRP totaled only 118 million, while market capitalization rose by 105 billion, implying, in his framing, an 883x market cap multiplier over a one-month period. Anticipating skepticism about the short-window math, he countered that the same dynamic can cut both ways during liquidations. It works on inflows coming in and price going up. It also works when theres mass FUD and we get selling and people want to leave, he said.
Projecting forward to an ETF era, Rector posited that even ridiculously conservative assumptions lead to double-digit XRP. He referenced external estimates he said hes seen for first-year or first-month demandJP Morgan saying $4 to $8 billion in the first year and a range of $5 to $10 billion discussed by a fund executivethen applied a 100x multiplier as his base case.
What you see is XRPs market cap growing by 500 billion If we get 10 billion of inflows youre looking at a trillion of market cap growth, he said, adding that at around a 60 billion circulating supply that math is about a $17 to $20 XRP. He stressed that the precise number is unknowable but the direction, in his view, is not: Its not a riddle its rather simple math at this point.
Beyond ETFs, Rector highlighted what he called a parallel pipeline of balance-sheet buyers in the form of public digital asset treasury companies. He focused on Evernorth, describing it as a US vehicle established to promote the adoption of the crypto asset XRP at an institutional scale and planning to list on Nasdaq under the ticker XRP via a SPAC in early 2026.
Related Reading: XRP DEX Volumes Surge As Price Plunges: Smart Money Accumulating?
He read from an SBI Holdings press statement announcing a $200 million PIPE alongside Ripple and other investors, saying proceeds would be used primarily to purchase XRP in the open market to build one of the worlds largest public XRP treasuries, with audited reporting.
Theyre going to bring 200 million of inflows into XRP, he said, adding that Evernorths total committed capital is expected to raise a total of over 1 billion. For Rector, those purchaseswhether from order books or OTCstill reduce float. Even if theyre getting it OTC, theyre still driving a supply shock , he argued.
Rector framed timing risk around Washington, asserting that a US government shutdown, which he said began on October 1 and had reached 21 days, is delaying ETF approvals. He repeatedly caveated his 2025 call with the shutdown wildcard: The only way that we dont get a supply shock here in 2025 is if the government stays shut down throughout the rest of this year Very unlikely, [but] that is the one caveat.
He added that, consistent with prior crypto cycles, he expects a buy the rumor, sell the news pullback on the day spot products go live, even as he maintains a bullish net view on cumulative inflows over subsequent weeks and months.
At press time, XRP traded at $2.39.