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XRP roared back above $3.00 in early Asian trading, reclaiming key psychological support as Bitcoins march to fresh highs energized altcoin flows.
But the move comes with a caveat: on-chain trackers flagged 320 million XRP ($950Million) moving onto exchanges over the past week, an overhang that could test buyers resolve as price approaches a crowded resistance band.
With ETF chatter heating up and Ripples banking ambitions in motion, the next leg hinges on whether bulls can absorb supply and force a clean breakout toward $4.00.
Momentum spilled over from Bitcoins surge above $125K, historically a favorable backdrop for large-cap alts like XRP.
Traders also point to seven active spot XRP ETF filings slated for October decision windows, potentially binary catalysts for Q4, and Ripples application for a U.S. OCC banking license, which, if approved, could bolster institutional-grade custody, settlement, and on-chain liquidity services.
In parallel, Asia hours showed persistent accumulation signals earlier in the week, with whale-linked wallets snapping up dips around $2.95$3.00.
Technically, XRPs structure retains a bullish tilt. Price is holding a fresh base around $2.95$3.00, with the 50-day SMA near $2.93 and Parabolic SAR support around $2.74 cushioning downside.
A multi-month symmetrical triangle from July looms overhead. Traders are watching a daily close above $3.12$3.30 to validate breakout conditions. Clear that band on strong volume, and models point to $3.38 to $3.67 then $3.95, with extensions into the $4.00$4.20 zone if momentum accelerates.
Indicator-wise, RSI 54 leaves headroom before overbought, while a pending MACD bullish cross supports continuation. Derivatives are leaning constructive too, with open interest up 4% to $8.9B, signaling growing participation.
The main risk lies in renewed supply pressure, as exchange balances climbed from 3.45 billion to 3.85 billion XRP between September 26 and October 5, while Age Consumed spikes suggest that some long-term holders have joined in profit-taking.
If those tokens rotate into asks, bulls must defend $3.00 / $2.93 to prevent a drift toward $2.85$2.75. Conversely, a swift soak of offers at $3.10$3.30 would signal depth and likely trigger trend-following flows.
Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart from Tradingview