Bitcoins recent surge past $94,000 has reignited debate over whether the bull market is still alive, or if this is merely a dead cat bounce before another leg down.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who previously suggested the cycle had peaked, now admits he may have been premature in his assessment.
In an April 23 post on X, Ju explained that after BTC dropped 10% following his call, it has since rebounded, trading 10% higher than when he made the prediction.
However, the analyst remains cautious, stressing that the number one cryptocurrency is still range-bound. He nonetheless acknowledged that a decisive break above $100,000 would force him to reconsider his stance. At the same time, a new all-time high (ATH) before the last quarter of the year could potentially see him discard the cyclical theory altogether.
“If Bitcoin hits new ATH before Q4, Im ready to throw out the cycle theory,” Ju tweeted. A market without clear cycles could look very different from what weve experienced. In that case, the permabulls were right. Up only.”
Bitcoins climb above $90,000, a level not seen since early March, has been partly attributed to strategic whale accumulation on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. According to CryptoQuant, each upward price movement has been accompanied by large-scale purchases from deep-pocketed investors, suggesting that institutional players are stepping in to drive momentum.
On-chain data supports this school of thought, as it shows long-term holders who have held BTC for more than five months resuming accumulation after a period of distribution. Analysts suggest this renewed interest is a sign of confidence in Bitcoins long-term prospects, even as short-term holders continue selling into weakness.
Last week, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas also linked BTCs price resilience to a shift in ownership as institutional investors and corporate giants like Strategy scooped up hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin from the market to absorb the supply that previously shook retail-dominated markets.
This recent price behavior is at the heart of the renewed optimism around BTCs trajectory. After shedding some of its value in late March amid fears of a topped-out cycle, the asset recovered, gaining 10.2% in the past week alone, edging out the broader crypto market, which went up 9.0% in that period.
At the time of writing, it was changing hands at $92,701, marking a slight intraday dip of 0.8% but still sitting firmly within a 24-hour range between $92,078 and $94,320, reflecting typical consolidation after a strong upward move.
While the cryptocurrency maintains a commanding 61.4% market dominance, its still trading 14.7% below its ATH of $108,786. But compared to historical levels, this is rarified air, nearly 137,000% higher than its 2013 low of $67.81.