Toncoin (TON) appears to have now entered a notable phase in its market cycle, presenting potential opportunities for investors. A recent analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Joao Wedson highlights that TON has moved into a favorable risk zone for accumulation, as indicated by the Normalized Risk Metric (NMR).
This metric evaluates an asset’s price risk relative to historical data, providing a clearer picture of whether the current price levels are suitable for investment or if caution is warranted.
The NMR uses moving averages such as the 50-day and 374-day simple moving averages (SMA) along with logarithmic differences in price data to determine risk exposure.
A normalized score ranging between 0 and 1 indicates the level of risk, with values closer to zero suggesting a lower chance of price decline. According to Wedson, TON’s current placement in the green zone signals reduced risk, making it an appealing opportunity for investors seeking long-term exposure to the asset.
The analysis further suggests that while the medium and long-term risk profiles appear favorable, there remains a possibility for TONs price to revisit historically significant support zones, often referred to as the blue zone on price heatmaps.
Historically, these levels have served as price floors and accumulation points for investors expecting future price appreciation.
Another CryptoQuant analyst, Maartunn, has added further context to Toncoins current market stance. According to his observations, TON’s Open Interest (OI) in the futures market has decreased to $141 million, marking the lowest level observed in the past nine months.
Open Interest refers to the total value of outstanding futures contracts and is a key indicator of market sentiment and participation.
A decline in Open Interest generally signals reduced market activity and lower volatility. While this trend is specific to TON, it reflects a broader pattern across the cryptocurrency market as the year comes to a close.
Historically, periods of low Open Interest are often followed by significant price movements, either upward or downward, once liquidity returns to the market.
Lower Open Interest combined with Toncoins favorable risk metrics may suggest a period of price stability and reduced volatility.
Risk-Adjusted Returns and Drawdowns: A Look at Unrealized Profits in TON
The Open Interest and Funding Rates chart complements this narrative by highlighting steady open interest levels, which demonstrate sustained participation in the TON ecosystem. By @ShivenMoodley
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CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 24, 2024
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView